Boris Johnson is expected to make a firm decision on Monday as to whether to bring back Covid restrictions in England before the new year.
On Christmas Eve, England was the only nation not to announce new measures as the latest figures on cases, hospital admissions and deaths were not seen as warranting a change.
But ministers have been blind to the virus’ spread since then due to a two-day break in the publication of Covid data over the Christmas weekend.
Downing Street has previously said it would not hesitate to act after Christmas if necessary, but Mr Johnson is unlikely to announce major changes later in the week.
This is because MPs would need to be recalled from their Christmas break if new legal measures are needed, which normally takes at least two days and could drag on even longer due to logistical problems with relocating Parliament’s staff.
The prime minister is understood to have been given three main options for further restrictions, ranging from tough legal restrictions on Tuesday to softer ‘advice’-based guidance – as well as the possibility that nothing will change until after New Year’s Eve.
1. Full lockdown restrictions
If cases are found to have surged dramatically over the weekend and scientists detect a strong risk of hospital wards being overwhelmed, they may urge Boris Johnson to reinstate stay-at-home restrictions nationwide.
This would look different to previous lockdowns, as ministers have vowed to do much more to keep schools open. Non-essential businesses would still be forced to close.
The scenario is seen as unlikely as there are signs that infections are plateauing in populous areas like London, while modelling from the government’s science advisers suggests hospitals could be put under pressure but be able to cope.
There is currently little momentum for even a brief lockdown inside or out of government, with Labour leader Keir Starmer explaining that hospitalisation figures paint a ‘different’ picture than when he called for a ‘circuit-breaker’ last Autumn.
2. Legally enforced ‘Plan C’ rules
There is more support for a tailored menu of new restrictions backed by threats of fines or imprisonment, similar to Step Two of the ‘roadmap out of lockdown’ in spring 2021.
Limits on indoor mixing would feature highly, with officials said to be considering measures ranging from an outright ban on indoor gatherings to a return to the rule of six.
Softer versions of this would most likely be accompanied by a curfew on pubs and restaurants, ‘vaccine passport’ rules for entry to venues. A return to social distancing in any indoor settings would also be expected.
Tougher versions of the plan would most likely last for a two-week period from December 28, according to insiders cited by The Times and the Daily Mail.
There are signs the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), which expects a ‘large wave’ of hospitalisations soon, could back such a move.
The minutes of its latest meeting state: ‘The earlier interventions happen, and the more stringent they are, the more likely they are to be effective. Earlier interventions can produce the same or greater effect at lower stringency and applied for a shorter duration than interventions that come late.’
Rececnt modelling produced for Sage found that ‘rapidly enacted’ Step Two measures would likely ‘reduce the peak of hospital pressure to about half its level under Plan B only’. It will be considered by ministers today.
3. Guidance-based ‘soft’ Plan C
As legal restrictions would be logistically challenging to pull off in time for New Year’s Eve – and are strongly opposed by more than 100 Tory backbenchers – the PM could push for similar rules framed instead as strong guidance.
This could look similar to Scotland, where, from Monday, people have been asked to stay at home and reduce mixing with other households as much as possible for at least three weeks.
Mr Johnson could use tough language and coordinated messaging from Professor Chris Whitty and other top government science advisers to encourage adherence.
Experts expect this option would have a much more diluted effect on cases, but would have a much less harmful impact on jobs.
England’s measures would still be softer than Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland, which now all have some degree of legal restrictions such as table service rules and limits on events.
4. Stick to ‘Plan B’
If scientists emerge optimstic from Monday’s data briefings, the government could decide current restrictions are safe enough to follow until at least early January.
But it would very likely be accompanied by cautious warnings from Mr Johnson or his advisers as Monday’s figures may not light up a clear path ahead.
Much has been made of early findings by the UK Health and Security Agency that the Omicron variant is 50- to 70% less likely to cause severe illness than Delta.
Graham Brady, chair of the 1922 Committee of backbench Tory MPs, said on Sunday: ‘Even with new concrete evidence that the Omicron variant will not cause the devastation first predicted, there are very real fears that, if this year’s Christmas has been reprieved, New Year could be cancelled instead. It must not happen.’
But experts have warned these stats may have been skewed by the relative youth of the groups that have mainly driven the recent spike in cases.
The agency’s chief, Dr Jenny Harries, on Friday said further data on Omicron’s effect on older and more vulnerable people was needed to understand the strain’s risk.
A Tory rebellion would by no means derail any stronger measures, as Labour have again signalled they will help push through new restrictions ‘in the national interest’ – however Keir Starmer has said Mr Johnson will need to include an economic support package for those affected.
Only one thing is certain: the PM will face strong opposition no matter which option is chosen.
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