Operations are likely to be cancelled in the coming weeks if there are significant spikes in Covid-19 hospitalisations, an NHS chief has warned.
Hospitals are now ‘under different, arguably more’ pressure compared to last January when healthcare services were crippled by another devastating wave of the virus.
Chris Hopson, the head of NHS Providers, has said there is ‘significant uncertainty’ ahead, with evidence that infections may already have peaked in London, which has been dubbed the hotbed for Omicron.
He told the Telegraph: ‘If the Covid-19 caseload does rise, and it is accompanied by significant staff absences, then something will have to give and lower priority elective surgery would be the conventional way forward.’
While it is difficult to predict what could happen in the capital, he stressed that trusts would attempt to protect urgent and high priority operations given the record numbers on waiting lists.
Many patients already need urgent treatment and deaths have already occurred after potentially life-saving surgeries were cancelled thanks to the pandemic.
The latest data shows the rapid increase in community infections now translating – ‘as expected’ – into increasing numbers of hospital admissions.
Compared to the same time in 2021, the number of patients with the virus has gone up by 68% in just a week.
‘The NHS is now under different, arguably more, pressure compared to last January’, Mr Hopson argued in a lengthy Twitter thread.
‘Much busier urgent and emergency care pathway. Many more planned care cases that cannot be delayed without patient harm.
‘The booster vaccination campaign is significantly more resource intensive and complex.’
He continued: ‘Staff absences are having greater impact in many trusts. Much greater pressure on social and primary care.
‘The NHS – community, mental health, ambulances and hospitals alike – and social care are beyond full stretch.
‘Staff are facing mountainous workload day in and day out.’
Modelling shown to ministers suggests that hospital admissions are now doubling every 16 days, and could peak in the middle of January, according to the Telegraph.
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The latest figures reveal that 1,915 were admitted to UK hospitals in the UK on Monday, December 27 which means that a further doubling would near the peak reached last January, when there were 4,134 daily admissions.
Earlier this week, the NHS announced that ‘surge hubs’ will be set up at hospitals across the country in preparation for a potential wave of Omicron admissions, in the latest bleak warning about strain on the health service.
They are designed to take in patients who are not yet well enough to be discharged but need minimal support and monitoring while they recover from the virus.
However, Mr Hopson pointed out that the biggest challenge will be staffing them.
On New Year’s Eve, more than 110,000 NHS staff were absent, according to figures seen by The Sunday Times.
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