Russo-Ukraine war will only end in a negotiated settlement

The war between Russia and Ukraine is unwinnable. The Russians are not strong enough to defeat their enemies on the battlefield. But they are strong enough to keep on fighting.

By the same token, Ukraine’s soldiers cannot win this war by force of arms. But they can cause enough trouble to prevent the Russians from winning. In short, this war will end only with a negotiated settlement in which both sides give up something.

That is not NATO orthodoxy. NATO’s position is that total Russian defeat is the only acceptable solution. To accept less, NATO says, is to reward Russia for starting this war in the first place.

From this comes the bold rhetoric of Ukraine and its allies, including Canada.

Alongside this rhetoric comes the West’s decision to supply Ukraine with up-to-date weaponry, in the form of tanks, jet aircraft and missile defence systems. The idea is to arm the Ukrainians to the teeth.

Yet the armaments are never enough. The Ukrainians always need more in order to capture and hold great chunks of their country that have fallen under Russian control.

The Ukrainian strategy is not always logical. For instance. There is no good rationale for Ukraine to spend its soldiers’ lives liberating cities of dubious usefulness like Bakhmut. But Bakhmut is a target nonetheless — if for no other reason than the fact that Russia has soldiers there.

If the war cannot be won by force of arms, how will it end? The logical answer is that some kind of political settlement must be found. Even the Americans seem to recognize this and from time to time hint at peace efforts to end the fighting.

Turkey talks of a cease fire occasionally. It has even backstopped a deal to let Ukraine export its wheat through Russian controlled Black Sea ports.

Another voice calling for a peaceful solution is that of French president Emmanuel Macron. Macron is trying to have China use its influence with Moscow to push for a political deal to end the fighting.

But so far, neither Ukraine nor Russia seems interested in a political solution to the war.

In particular, neither side has shown any sign of budging on the key to any settlement — the status of Crimea.

To Russia, Crimea is the jewel in the crown of its Black Sea possessions, with a history that goes back to Catherine the Great.

To Ukraine, Crimea represents another history, albeit one with equal potency. To Ukrainians, Crimea is an essential part of the Motherland.

In short a political settlement will not be easy.

But if this war is to end, it must be found. Tanks and jets are not enough. That is the lesson of the last few months. The war has been brutal and bloody. But it has been unable to give either side an advantage.

If this war is to end, the fighting must stop and the talking must start. Who knows? Canada may be of some use in such an endeavour.

SHARE: