A battle of the bad will go down tonight in Vancouver as the Canucks host the Anaheim Ducks who lost 5-2 last night in Seattle. The home side sits as a -220 favorite which is just the third time they’ve been a -200 or shorter favorite all season.
With a cross-border back-to-back and giving up nearly 40 shots per game, is tonight a great spot to hit some shot markets on a Vancouver side that has won three of its last four games?
Find out my best bets for my Ducks vs. Canucks NHL betting picks and predictions.
Ducks vs Canucks best odds
Ducks vs Canucks picks and predictions
It was very surprising to see five of the six Vancouver players who have shot markets be listed at -110 or longer for their Overs. Anaheim has been a team to fade with shots all season and that is usually priced in heavily, but not so much today it seems.
The Ducks are historically bad at giving up shots and allow 39.3 per game on the season and 39.9 per game on the road. Now they’ll be in an even worse spot to give up shots with tonight being their second game in as many nights which included a border crossing last night. That means the Ducks likely got into their hotel very late last night which isn’t ideal in what will be the second game of a three-game road trip.
It’s tough to choose one of the Cancuks to hit their Over shots, but Anthony Beauvillier at +112 looks like the best bet of the bunch.
First off, he’s averaging nearly 19 minutes of ice time per game with his new club (third among forwards) and is playing on the top line with Elias Pettersson and Andrei Kuzmenko. He’s playing on the second power-play unit which is the only downside, but with Anaheim taking penalties at the third-highest rate, both units will see the ice tonight.
The winger has hit three or more shots in five of his 15 games with Vancouver but has at least two in 13 of them. His floor is safe with the amount of ice time he’s getting, and with the Canucks getting 29.1 shots on goal over that 15-game stretch, Beauvillier has a 7.77% shot rate. If he can maintain that rate, this is an Over if Vancouver can get 40 shots — which is the Ducks’ average on the road this season.
For a play that I see better than 50/50, the plus money is giving plenty of value to his Over.
My best bet: Anthony Beauvillier Over 2.5 shots on goal (+112)
Ducks vs Canucks moneyline analysis
The Ducks took a legit 5-2 loss in Seattle last night as +250 dogs and now cross the border and visit the Canucks who sit as -220 home favorites as of this morning. Vancouver opened at -200 on the moneyline and has seen some decent money to shorten those odds by 20 points.
Taking it as a heavy favorite is not an easy decision for bettors. The Canucks have been -200 or shorter just twice all year (2-0 SU) with -220 being the shortest they’ve been all season in a 5-2 win over the Blackhawks in late January.
The home side has been playing decent hockey of late — taking two points from the Predators, Maple Leafs, and Stars over their last four games — and suffering a 2-1 loss to a surging Minnesota team in the other.
However, this is still the fourth-worst team in hockey in point percentage since January 1 and one that also has the league’s worst penalty kill. Their 3.96 GAA over that stretch is also tied for the worst mark in hockey — coincidently with the Ducks.
Anaheim has surprisingly played better than its opponent since the start of 2023 at 11-12-4, but this is a tough schedule spot for the visitors who may face Thatcher Demko who has looked much better since returning to the lineup (2-1 SU, 2.35 GAA, and a .937 SV%).
Looking at the back-to-back spot, the Ducks are 1-9 SU on the second game with no rest over their last 10. Bad teams don’t generally play their best hockey on the second game of such spots and that is certainly being priced in here.
I have zero interest in betting the Canucks at this price as their flaws (poor PK, suspect goaltending, and bad 5-on-5 numbers) are too numerous and glaring. I’m guessing it’s Demko’s start, but if for some reason Collin Delia (7-6 SU, 3.51 GAA, and a .876 SV%) gets the nod after missing six games, this line should move toward the Ducks.
Even the Vancouver team total Over 3.5 is getting too pricy at -150. If this is Demko vs. Lukas Dostal (likely), I’m off this side.
Ducks vs Canucks Over/Under analysis
This total opened at 6.5 at -115 for the Over and hit 7.0 briefly at some books before getting bet back down to 6.5.
This is a meeting of the two worst GAAs since January 1 as both teams are allowing 3.96 goals per game since the start of 2023. They also have been equally bad on the penalty kill as the Ducks have a 78.8% kill rate over that stretch while the Canucks are historically bad at killing penalties this season and own a 67.9% kill rate since the beginning of January.
Dostal will likely start for the visitors after John Gibson went last night. The rookie netminder is 3-6 SU with a 4.00 GAA and a .897 SV% in 10 games this season. He’s seen at least 41 shots in six of his last seven starts and faces a Vancouver team that has scored four or more goals in six of its last nine games.
The previous meeting back in November, also in Vancouver, saw a total of 13 goals in an 8-5 Canucks win where a total of four power-play goals were scored. Considering the state of their penalty kills, both teams drawing and taking penalties at Top 10 rates, and Vancouver surprisingly sporting a Top-10 offense at 3.32 goals per game, this Over 6.5 is going to see a steady amount of money and should close at 7.
Getting the Over 6.5 at -125 or even -130 is something I’d suggest doing if the price is still available.
Ducks vs Canucks betting trend to know
The Ducks are 1-9 in their last 10 games playing on zero days of rest. Find more NHL betting trends for Ducks vs Canucks.
Ducks vs Canucks game info
| Location: | Rogers Arena, Vancouver, BC |
| Date: | Wednesday, March 8, 2023 |
| Puck drop: | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TNT, Sportsnet 360 |
Ducks vs Canucks key injuries
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