For the third and final time this season, the Toronto Maple Leafs face the New Jersey Devils.
The pregame narrative: Each side has earned a road win in their head-to-head series, but those matchups came back in November. The Leafs and Devils were busy ahead of the trade deadline, and the recent results from their new-look lineups matter more than what happened in autumn.
Check out our Maple Leafs vs. Devils same-game parlay for March 7.
NHL odds as of 9:00 a.m. on 03/07/2023.
Maple Leafs vs. Devils same-game parlay
Parlay: Devils +1.5 + under 7.5 goals + Meier to score 1+ point (+155)
Devils +1.5 (-335): Over the past two weeks, the Devils have shown why they’re ready for their first serious playoff push in over a decade.
In that span (since Feb. 20), New Jersey paces the NHL in expected goals share (65.1%) while posting the fourth-highest Corsi share (58.9%).
In contrast, Toronto’s xG share (51.0%) and Corsi share (48.2%) rank well outside the top 10.
Both prior matchups between these teams were decided by one goal, and Toronto has struggled to cover a multi-goal spread this season.
The Leafs have 24 multi-goal wins in 63 total games this year (38.1%), including just one in their past five games.
New Jersey, meanwhile, has covered an underdog puck line in seven of its past eight games — as well as 50 of 62 games overall (81.0%).
Other parlay legs
Under 7.5 goals (-275): For as free-wheeling as the Devils have played of late, they’ve still only gone over this line in two of their past 10 games.
New Jersey has scored and/or allowed four-plus goals in each of its past nine games, twice hanging a seven-spot on its opponent. That goes to show just how tough it is to clear this bloated goal total.
We think it’ll be especially tough against the Leafs, who’ve hit the standard under (or pushed) in 57.1% of their matchups. Obviously, a teased-up line makes the chances of an under even more likely.
These teams combined for just eight total goals across their two previous matchups. And Toronto has hit this under in five consecutive games.
Meier to score 1+ point (-230): Timo Meier didn’t take long to show his new team what it paid for, notching the Devils’ opening goal on Sunday en route to a win.
The 26-year-old Swiss will presumably need some time to build chemistry with his new teammates, but it was nice to see the scoring touch show up so fast. And for a guy who’s registered a point in 36 of 58 games, it’s fair to expect he’ll continue finding the scoresheet more often than not.
We particularly like Meier’s chances to register a point if he sticks with centre Jack Hughes.
The duo skated together for 14:52 on Sunday, per Natural Stat Trick, which is nice given that Hughes is 12th in the league in points (76).
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