NBA prop picks March 5: Back Lillard and fade Curry

The NBA’s Sunday slate is jam-packed and we’ve got three prop picks to accompany the action.

The pregame narrative: Damian Lillard has been on an otherworldly heater and we’re happy to back him against the Orlando Magic. We’re also fading Stephen Curry in his return to action and tailing Luguentz Dort’s points prop.

Find all our best NBA props picks for March 5 below.

NBA odds as of 9:36 a.m. ET on 03/05/2023.

NBA prop picks

Best Bet: Lillard over 34.5 points (-120)

Backing anyone to score 35 points seems daunting, but for Lillard, that mark has been a regularity.

The Portland Trail Blazers point guard is putting up the third-most points per game this season (32.3) and has been particularly hot as of late.

Lillard is averaging 38.1 points in his last 20 games and has cleared this mark in 12 of those contests. This run was punctuated by a historic 71-point performance against the Houston Rockets one week ago.

He’s also shooting a ridiculous .508/.407/.956 in that span.

The Magic aren’t an awful defensive side, but they also aren’t making things too difficult for their opponents. Orlando sits 18th in defensive rating (113.8) and 17th in opponent points per game (113.6). That said, Jamahl Mosley’s team does allow the third-most 3-pointers per game (13.0).

Lillard is an assassin from beyond the arc and we expect him to torch the Magic from deep tonight.

The last time Portland played Orlando, Lillard shot 2 for 12 from three, but he still put up 30 points. If he even had a mediocre night from deep this total would have been cleared with ease.

Set your clocks for Dame time on Sunday.

Key stat: Lillard has gone over this mark in seven of his 12 games since February 1.

Quick picks

Curry under 25.5 points (-122): We wouldn’t usually be in the business of fading the best shooter of all time but today’s circumstances warrant some skepticism.

Curry hasn’t played since February 4 due to a leg injury. He’ll return against the Los Angeles Lakers today but we’re not expecting him to chew up a crazy amount of clock.

The two-time MVP has fallen under this mark five times in the six games this season where he’s played fewer than 30 minutes this season.

Dort over 13.5 points (-106): Dort dropped 19 points against the Utah Jazz on Friday and we expect him to clear this total against them today.

The Canadian is averaging 14.2 points this season and shouldn’t have much of an issue reaching this number, even with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander back in the lineup.

Dort has gone over this mark in four of his last five games and is putting up a solid 15.5 PPG at home this season.

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