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With only three weeks left in the regular season, a new frontrunner has emerged.
The latest: The Milwaukee Bucks have ridden a hot streak since late January that pushed them past the Boston Celtics for the shortest title odds. The West-leading Denver Nuggets still have plenty of value, though, as do the Sacramento Kings.
Check out the latest NBA Finals odds.
NBA Finals odds
| Team | Odds (Mar 19) | Odds (March 6) |
| Milwaukee Bucks | +275 | +450 |
| Boston Celtics | +350 | +300 |
| Phoenix Suns | +500 | +450 |
| Denver Nuggets | +600 | +600 |
| Philadelphia 76ers | +1,200 | +1,000 |
| Golden State Warriors | +1,200 | +1,200 |
| Los Angeles Clippers | +1,400 | +1,000 |
| Memphis Grizzlies | +2,000 | +1,600 |
| Dallas Mavericks | +3,000 | +2,000 |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | +3,000 | +2,500 |
| Los Angeles Lakers | +4,000 | +4,000 |
| Sacramento Kings | +4,000 | +10,000 |
| Miami Heat | +5,000 | +5,000 |
NBA odds as of 3:36 p.m. on 03/19/2023.
Best odds to win the NBA Finals
The favourite: Milwaukee Bucks (+275)
After chasing the Celtics for several months — dating back to the offseason — the Bucks are in the spotlight as the frontrunners to win the NBA Finals.
And it has a little something to do with Milwaukee’s utter dominance over the past two-ish months.
From Jan. 23 to now, the Bucks have accrued a staggering 21-3 record, along with an 8.6 net rating. In that span, they’ve played at an NBA-high pace (103.7 possessions) and matched their speed with efficiency, posting a 58.1% effective field goal rate (second in the NBA).
The Bucks are in the heart of their competitive window, so it’s no surprise to see them performing as the class of the league. Giannis Antetokounmpo and co. won the Finals two seasons ago and fell to eventual East champion Boston in seven games in the conference semis last spring.
Milwaukee and Boston face each other once more this season before likely meeting down the road in the playoffs. The teams are 1-1 against each other, but the Bucks are currently a hotter team and have rightfully usurped the Celtics atop the odds leaderboard.
Other NBA Finals choices
| Team | Odds (March 19) |
| New York Knicks | +8,000 |
| Atlanta Hawks | +25,000 |
| Brooklyn Nets | +25,000 |
| Toronto Raptors | +25,000 |
| New Orleans Pelicans | +25,000 |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | +25,000 |
| Portland Trail Blazers | +50,000 |
| Chicago Bulls | +100,000 |
| Utah Jazz | +100,000 |
| Washington Wizards | +100,000 |
| Indiana Pacers | +100,000 |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | +100,000 |
| Charlotte Hornets | +100,000 |
| Detroit Pistons | +100,000 |
| Orlando Magic | +100,000 |
Best value: Denver Nuggets (+600)
In making a case for the Nuggets as our top value pick during the offseason — when their odds were more than three times this number — we pointed out the intrigue of two-time reigning MVP Nikola Jokic flanked by a pair of recently-injured game-changers (Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr.).
Jokic is well on his way to an MVP-worth campaign, and he has a stellar supporting cast behind him.
Murray and Porter are two of Denver’s six players averaging double-digit points (down from seven after they traded depth guard Bones Hyland). That explains why the Nuggets have the second-best offensive rating in the NBA (117.5) and the West’s second-best net rating (3.7).
The Nuggets (47-24) still lead the West by 3.5 games — entering play on March 19 — despite losing five of their past six. You might be able to scoop a bit more value on this line if that cold spell continues.
With its current core, Denver has only made it to the conference finals once — but we could see another deep push this year.
Team to watch: Sacramento Kings (+4,000)
The Kings cannot be ignored. We’re simply too far along in the season for that.
Sacramento was a 100-to-1 pick in the not-too-distant past, and now those odds have shortest to 40-to-1. Still, that seems absurd in a vacuum when you consider that this team owns the No. 2 record in the West.
Like Denver, Sacramento finds offensive production from a number of sources — with six players averaging double figures. The Kings boast the NBA’s rebounding leader in Domantas Sabonis (12.5 rebounds/game) and a crafty scorer in De’Aaron Fox (25.3 points/game).
Sacramento hasn’t even made the playoffs since 2006, and it hasn’t won a series since 2004. But if you’re only leaning on historic precedent, you’re missing all the intrigue that this provides.
Raptors NBA Finals odds
The good news for Raptors fans is that this team is likely headed to postseason play. The bad news is the Raps aren’t expected to stick around too long.
With a three-game cushion on the 11th-place Pacers, Toronto (35-36) is in good shape to reach the play-in round. But don’t let that be a reason to sprinkle on this team at 250-to-1.
Toronto was on a long-shot rollercoaster for a while, but their current +25,000 odds are the longest of the season (they were as short as +6,000 on Dec. 27). We see no value here.
FiveThirtyEight’s current NBA projections give the Raptors a 50% chance to make the playoffs, but only a 0.7% chance to win.
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DisclaimerThis content was produced as part of a partnership and therefore it may not meet the standards of impartial or independent journalism.
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