PSG vs. Bayern Munich picks and odds: Expect Mbappe to take over in the Champions League

One of Europe’s top teams will exit the Champions League this Wednesday when PSG takes on Bayern Munich.

The pregame narrative: Bayern currently holds a 1-0 aggregate lead after winning the first leg in Paris on February 14. Now, a Neymar-less PSG side will have to dig deep to advance into the tournament’s final eight teams. We’re backing them to at least tie on Wednesday and also expect a big game out of Kylian Mbappe.

Check out our best PSG vs. Bayern Munich picks for the round of 16 fixture on March 8.

Champions League odds as of 2:24 p.m. ET on 03/06/2023.

PSG vs. Bayern Munich picks

Best Bet: PSG to win or tie (-104)

Paris didn’t have its best game against Munich when these teams last met but we’re willing to look past that — even with Neymar sidelined.

Christophe Galtier’s squad has won each of its three games since playing Bayern last month, scoring 11 goals across those contests. It’ll be a tough task to beat the German giants away from home but if any team has the star power to make it happen, it’s PSG.

Paris was unbeaten (4-2-0) in the Champions League this season before its defeat last month with a plus-eight goal differential. Granted, none of the teams in PSG’s group was quite on Bayern’s level, but it’s still an encouraging statistic.

Mbappe is fully fit and is playing out of his mind — more on that later — and Lionel Messi has maintained his stellar form from the World Cup. The team has recently opted for a 3-5-2 formation with Mbappe and Messi playing upfront, and that has worked nicely.

We’re expecting a strong performance from PSG this Wednesday.

Key stat: PSG has won or tied six of their seven Champions League games this season.

Quick picks

Mbappe over 1.5 SOT (+110): There’s running hot and then there’s being on fire — Mbappe falls into the latter category. Since returning from injury, the French superstar has buried five goals in three starts and has a total of 11 shots on targets in those contests.

He’s cleared this number in each of those games and also managed one shot on target against Bayern Munich in the first leg of this matchup. He only played 34 minutes in that game and was used as a substitute.

If he’s going to play the full 90 plus added time — which he almost certainly will — we’re loving his chances of breezing by this target.

Mbappe to score (+138): Mbappe has five goals in his last three games and perhaps more importantly he’s got seven goals across seven Champions League appearances this season.

He didn’t find the net against Bayern on Feb. 14 but came damn close a few times registering 0.5 expected goals in 34 minutes of play.

Mbappe is one of the best players on the planet and he’s stepped up time and time again in the biggest moments. Back him to be the difference in this game.

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