March Madness Day 1 best bets: Take Texas A&M, Utah State ATS

The First Four games are nice and all, but Thursday is when March Madness really begins. Within the onslaught of 16 tournament games, we’ve got three best bets to send your way.

The pregame narrative: Two Aggies schools (Texas A&M and Utah State) have caught our eye with their impressive ATS play this season. Also, we’re taking the points with an Oral Roberts squad that has plenty of upset potential.

Check out our top March Madness Day 1 best bets for NCAA tournament games on March 16.

NCAA basketball odds as of 12:00 p.m. ET on 03/15/2023.

March Madness Day 1 best bets

Best Bet: Texas A&M -2 (-121)

Both Texas A&M and Penn State posted strong ATS records this year, but there’s a key distinction. The Nittany Lions’ 20-13-2 ATS mark was propped up by some generous underdog spreads.

When Penn State was given two points or fewer, it compiled a mediocre 10-9-2 ATS record. Obviously, that’s not nearly as impressive.

Texas A&M, meanwhile, went 23-11 ATS — including 17-7 when favoured by two or more points.

NCAA bracket: Play the bracket here

When the Aggies were pegged as the favourites, they played their role admirably.

Credit Penn State for an impressive Big Ten tournament run, falling just short against Purdue in the final. But that flash-in-the-pan performance doesn’t erase its 10-10 conference record.

In a strong SEC, Texas A&M put together a 15-3 mark. The Aggies have two wins in the past month (vs. Tennessee, vs. Alabama) that are more impressive than anything the Nittany Lions accomplished all season.

Key stat: Texas A&M has covered in 10 of its past 12 games.

Quick picks

Utah State -1.5 (-112): No. 7 Missouri may be the higher seed, but No. 10 Utah State is favoured for a reason. The Aggies went 7-1 down the stretch and boast a trio of players who shoot 38.0% or better from 3-point range.

Missouri is just 16-16-1 ATS this year, while Utah State is 21-12 (with seven ATS wins in its past eight games).

Oral Roberts +6.5 (-118): We’ve already argued for Oral Roberts as an upset pick over Duke, so taking the Golden Eagles with some points feels like a good play.

ORU is riding the country’s longest winning streak (17 games), and all four of its losses this year came in Quad 1 matchups on the road.

The Golden Eagles rank seventh in effective field goal percentage (56.1%) and should be able to keep pace with a Duke squad that has only covered this number in six of its past 13 games.

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