NBA prop picks March 20: Trust Harden from deep

The NBA’s six-game slate on Monday provides more than enough fodder for prop betters looking for value.

The pregame narrative: James Harden is a reliable threat from behind the line, Julius Randle has been piling up assists in recent months and Kelly Oubre has stepped up since the Charlotte Hornets’ franchise player went down.

Find all our best NBA props picks for March 20 below.

NBA odds as of 9:55 a.m. ET on 03/20/2023.

NBA prop picks

Best Bet: Harden over 2.5 threes (-122)

Harden’s efficiency from beyond the arc has rarely been elite, but this season he’s produced his best 3-point percentage since 2011-12 (39.0%).

Combining that success rate with solid volume has Harden clearing this over on a regular basis. The star point guard has produced at least three 3-pointers in 61.5% of his appearances this season.

That makes this a good bet in almost any matchup, and Harden has an excellent matchup on Monday. The 33-year-old is going up against a Chicago Bulls team that concedes the second-most threes in the NBA on a per-game basis (13.2).

There’s nothing in his recent production that indicates he’s in for a cold night of perimeter shooting, either. Harden has three or more threes in six of his last nine starts dating back to February 27. He also drained three 3-pointers the last time he saw the Chicago Bulls on January 6.

Key stat: Harden is making 3.2 threes per game in his last 13, shooting 40.2% from behind the line in that span.

Quick picks

Randle over 3.5 assists (-141): There’s a solid helping of juice on this prop, but it shouldn’t be disqualifying considering Randle’s success distributing the ball. The New York Knicks forward has four or more assists in 59.7% of his games this year, which eclipses the 58.5% implied probability of this line.

He’s also been especially effective lately. In his last 29 games, Randle has hit this over 21 times, averaging 4.7 assists per contest.

The 28-year-old will likely keep his momentum rolling against a mediocre Minnesota Timberwolves squad with the NBA’s 18th-ranked scoring defence.

Oubre over 23.5 points (-110): It’s reasonable to feel some sticker shock with this line considering Oubre is averaging 20.3 points per game this season, but his production has taken off since LaMelo Ball went down.

In eight games since Ball suffered a season-ending injury, Oubre has stepped up, clearing this line six times. He should be able to keep it up against a soft Indiana Pacers defence that concedes the third-most points per game in the NBA (118.3).

The Pacers are also particularly vulnerable to shooting guards like Oubre, conceding the third-most points to the position, per FantasyPros.

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