Thunder vs. Raptors picks and odds: Fade Toronto at home

The Toronto Raptors are looking to build off a big win when they host the Oklahoma City Thunder on Thursday.

The pregame narrative: Toronto sent Nikola Jokic and Co. packing on Tuesday with a sizeable win over the Denver Nuggets. But the Thunder are hot and this reeks of a letdown spot for the Raptors. We’re backing Oklahoma City in a few different ways tonight.

Check out our Thunder vs. Raptors picks for March 16.

NBA odds as of 8:51 a.m. on 03/16/2023.

Thunder vs. Raptors picks

Best Bet: Thunder +6 (-112)

The Thunder have been quietly humming with six wins in their past seven games.

OKC has the best net rating in the NBA during that seven-game segment (+7.8) and the second-best defensive rating (+107.4). This team has been playing solid basketball and is in the midst of a playoff push — six points is far too much to ask of Toronto.

That’s especially true when you look at the Raptors over the same span. Toronto is 17th in net rating over the past seven games (-0.9) with a 3-4 record.

Don’t let recency bias fool you, either. The Raps just hung 125 points on the Nuggets but that’s the first time they’ve scored 115-plus points in regulation since February 23.

This isn’t anything new as Toronto has the 21st-ranked offensive rating since February 1 (112.9).

This team struggles to put the ball in the hoop and OKC is playing exceptional defence right now.

Toronto is 15-17 ATS after a win while Oklahoma is a much better 19-12-2.

Key stat: The Thunder are 6-1 ATS in their past seven games.

Quick picks

Thunder moneyline (+195): In for a penny, in for a pound. The Thunder aren’t just keeping games close, they’re winning them and we’re more than happy to back them on the moneyline tonight.

No one on the Raptors’ roster can match the scoring prowess of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander — the Canadian superstar is averaging 36 points per game since the all-star break — and we think he’ll be the difference tonight.

OKC beat Toronto 132-113 when these teams met in November (Pascal Siakam did not play).

Raptors under 118.5 (-117): Toronto has only cracked this number once in its past 10 games. The Raptors are averaging 108.1 points in that span so we’re not really sure why this line is so high.

We mentioned earlier how stout OKC’s defence has been, too. The Thunder have held each of their past three opponents to 107 points or fewer.

Expect Toronto to struggle tonight.

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