The Toronto Blue Jays will try to sweep away the Detroit Tigers in their first home series of the season on Thursday night. While that’s a good way to begin their home schedule, the story here is still the start of Matt Chapman.
The Blue Jays’ third baseman is arguably more locked in at the plate than any other hitter in baseball and has basically been a cash machine when it comes to betting on his player props. So, will Tigers’ starter Spencer Turnbull be able to slow down Chapman and the Jays?
I break down this American League matchup and bring you the best bet in my Tigers vs. Blue Jays MLB picks and predictions below.
Tigers vs Blue Jays odds
Tigers vs Blue Jays predictions
Let’s get this out of the way. Anyone who follows me knows I’ve said that as long as sportsbooks are willing to give us plus money on the Over for Matt Chapman’s total bases during this hot streak, we’re going to keep riding this train until the wheels fall off.
Well, it’s on the board at +115… you know what to do.
If you need some actual evidence to go bet this, here you go: Chapman has gone nuclear to start the season, hitting .489 with a 1.390 OPS and 11 extra-base hits. He’s collected at least one hit in 11 of his 12 games and has gone Over 1.5 total bases nine times.
He’s incredibly locked in and while it will end at some point, I’m not betting on that happening tonight, with the Detroit Tigers handing the ball to Spencer Turnbull for the series finale.
The 30-year-old right-hander has been tagged for 12 earned runs on 13 hits while striking out just four over eight innings of work this season. Turnbull doesn’t have swing-and-miss stuff and that has resulted in an opponent expected batting average of .309. That doesn’t bode well against Chapman and a Toronto Blue Jays team that leads MLB in batting average.
As I said, we’re riding this train until it falls off the tracks.
My best bet: Matt Chapman Over 1.5 total bases (+115)
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Tigers vs Blue Jays moneyline analysis
The Blue Jays have needed comebacks to win the first two games of this series with the Tigers, but that’s the talent of this Toronto lineup. The Jays are not out of any game and are hot right now.
And it’s not just Chapman; Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, Daulton Varsho, and even Kevin Kiermaier are all locked in at the dish and as a result, Toronto ranks first in batting average and fourth in OPS when facing right-handed pitching through the early portion of this season. As noted above, that could mean a tough night at the office for a struggling Turnbull.
The Blue Jays counter Turnbull with offseason acquisition Chris Bassitt. The veteran right-hander got rocked in his first start of the season but bounced back last time out, recording a quality start against the Angels, where the only really hard contact he gave up was on a Mike Trout bomb in the first inning. He ended up pitching six innings, allowing two earned runs on just two hits.
Tonight, he faces a Tigers team that looks lost at the plate. Detroit ranks dead last in runs per game, batting average, OPS, and 28th in home runs, while striking out the third-most times per game.
I expect Bassitt to settle in during his first start in Toronto and take advantage of this matchup against these stripe-less Tigers. That said, I don’t recommend laying the -230 price tag with the Jays in this spot. Instead, look at the Blue Jays on the five-inning run line (-148), or the full-game run line (-128) for better value.
Tigers vs Blue Jays Over/Under analysis
The total for this AL matchup hit the board at 9 and that’s where it sits as of Thursday afternoon. That’s the same number as the previous two games of this series with the opener easily going Over in a 9-3 Jays victory and Game 2 staying Under at 4-3, despite going to extra innings.
The number here is giving respect to the Blue Jays lineup, which is one of the more dangerous in the American League and one that is putting up 5.7 runs per game heading into this matchup.
It’s also recognizing that Bassitt has been taken deep a bunch of times already this season, and even a team without much pop in its lineup like the Tigers can step into one every now and then, having hit three home runs already in the series.
That said, the Tigers have been bad. Three or four runs is most likely their best-case scenario, so while six or seven runs from the Jays is certainly plausible, it’s still asking a lot.
Tigers vs Blue Jays game info
| Location: | Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Thursday, April 13, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:07 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Detroit, Sportsnet |
Tigers vs Blue Jays betting preview
Starting pitchers
Spencer Turnbull (0-2, 13.50 ERA): Turnbull is desperately seeking a better outing after surrendering at least five earned runs in each of his first two starts. Turnbull hasn’t faced off against the Blue Jays since 2019 and the team is basically completely different since then.
Chris Bassitt (1-1, 10.60 ERA): Bassitt responded to a rough first start of the season by giving up just two runs in six innings pitched against the Angels. Bassitt hasn’t faced off against the Tigers since 2021, which resulted in two runs on five hits while striking out eight in six innings.
Latest injuries
Trend to know
The Tigers are 0-6 in Spencer Turnbull’s last six road starts vs. teams with winning straight-up records dating back to last season. Find more MLB betting trends for Tigers vs. Blue Jays
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