UFC 286 picks: Bet Usman to beat Edwards in welterweight title fight

Another week, another stacked UFC card.

The pre-fight narrative: Kamaru Usman and Leon Edwards headline UFC 286 in a trilogy fight for the Welterweight belt. Edwards won their last go but we’re expecting Usman to reclaim his throne on Saturday. We’re also backing Roman Dolidze to upset Marvin Vettori in the card’s lone middleweight bout.

Check out our UFC 286 picks for the March 18 event.

UFC 286 picks overview

UFC odds as of 11:20 a.m. on 03/16/2023.

UFC 286 picks

Best Bet: Usman to win by decision (+112)

Usman was well on his way to beating Edwards in their last bout before the latter landed a massive knockout on a leg kick in the final minute of the fifth round.

That ended Usman’s 15-fight winning streak and stopped his consecutive run of title defences at five.

A win is a win, but one kick isn’t going to impact how we feel about this fight.

The Nigerian Nightmare had outstruck Edwards 83 to 55 at UFC 278 and dominated on the mat, too. Usman had five takedowns and 10:36 of ground control compared to Edwards’ one takedown and 2:55 of control.

We’re expecting something similar to unfold this weekend. Usman has netted six of his last nine wins via decision and five of those came in five-round fights.

Edwards has also never lost by knockout — two of his defeats came via decision and one via disqualification — so Usman likely won’t be able to spark the defending champion.

At the end of the day, Usman is one of the most well-rounded fighters and that will be enough for him to dictate the tempo and out-strike his opponent. He owns the fourth-best striking differential in welterweight history (1.99) and the best takedown defence (97.2%).

Key stat: Usman has the third-most decision wins in welterweight history (10).

Quick pick

Dolidze to win (+210): This is the first fight of the main card but that doesn’t mean it’s one worth skipping. Dolidze is riding a four-fight win streak into Saturday, having won each of his last three via knockout.

The Georgian is 12-1 overall and has to be one of the more underrated middleweights out there.

Vettori isn’t a slouch but he opens himself up to plenty of damage every fight. The Italian absorbs 3.58 significant strikes per minute — compared to Dolidze’s 2.06 — and that should come back to bite him.

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