Doug Ford’s government is weathering the Greenbelt scandal better than he is, poll suggests

Doug Ford’s personal connections to Greenbelt property developers have sparked negative feelings about the premier, but a new poll suggests the controversy is not impacting his government’s popularity.

In fact, the Abacus Data survey exclusively provided to the Star shows Ford’s Progressive Conservatives are doing better now than they did in November’s poll.

But there are warning signs for the governing party.

The Tories are at 41 per cent — up from 38 per cent last fall — while the Liberals are at 28 per cent, up from 27 per cent before. The NDP has slipped to 22 per cent from 26 per cent and the Greens remain at five per cent.

David Coletto, chair and CEO of Abacus, said Tuesday the Tories have improved since the last survey, when they were mired in labour strife with a strike by Canadian Union of Public Employees’ education workers.

“That’s one reason the NDP is down — CUPE gave them a boost. The NDP’s just lost salience and they appear less relevant than they did last fall,” he said.

Coletto noted new NDP Leader Marit Stiles has not enjoyed a poll bounce because “there was no fanfare” around her acclamation last month.

Using online panels based on the Lucid exchange platform, Abacus surveyed 1,000 people between last Thursday and Saturday.

Online panels, which are opt-in, cannot be assigned a margin of error, but for comparison purposes, a random sample of this size would have one of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Abacus asked respondents about the stag-and-doe party and wedding for Ford’s daughter that developers attended last summer, just months before protected lands were removed from the Greenbelt.

About one-third — 30 per cent — had not heard about that, while 45 per cent said they had but were “not following that closely.”

Just seven per cent are “following the story very closely” and another 18 per cent “pretty closely.”

“This is not yet penetrating the armour of Doug Ford, which will drive the Liberals and New Democrats crazy,” said Coletto.

However, the pollster warned there are “risks” for the premier’s party.

Indeed, 50 per cent have a more negative impression of Ford over the affair compared to eight per cent who were more positive about him, while 42 per cent said it hadn’t impacted their views on him.

“The people who are most likely to be following it are already opposed to Doug Ford,” he said.

Similarly, 49 per cent of respondents were opposed to his decision to allow development on 7,400 acres of the Greenbelt, the two-million-acre swath around the Greater Toronto Area. Ford has added 9,400 acres to the Greenbelt elsewhere as part of a land swap.

Only 22 per cent were supportive and 29 per cent were neutral.

“The takeaway is it hasn’t had an effect yet, but don’t discount the risk this issue could pose for the Tories if this continues,” said Coletto.

“It doesn’t signal to me that they have to do a fundamental rethink to how they’re approaching this issue.”

In terms of Ford’s personal popularity, 34 per cent had a positive view, 43 per cent a negative view, 19 per cent were neutral and four per cent unsure.

By comparison, Stiles had 18 per cent positive, 17 per cent negative, 27 per cent neutral, and 38 per cent unsure.

Abacus also tested the names of four Liberals mentioned as potential leaders.

MPP Mitzie Hunter, who isn’t running in the undeclared contest, had 11 per cent positive, 19 per cent negative, 26 per cent neutral, and 44 per cent unsure.

MPP Ted Hsu also had 11 per cent positive, 19 per cent negative, 26 per cent neutral, and 44 per cent unsure.

MP Yasir Naqvi had 10 per cent positive, 20 per cent negative, 27 per cent neutral, and 44 per cent unsure.

MP Nathaniel Erskine-Smith had 10 per cent positive, 17 per cent negative, 27 per cent neutral, and 46 per cent unsure.

“All are relatively unknown, which is not surprising,” said Coletto.

“Doug Ford is facing potential opposition leaders who are blank slates.”

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