NBA prop picks March 23: Fade Giddey vs. Clippers

There are only four NBA games going tonight, and we’ve got a prop pick for three of them.

The pregame narrative: Josh Giddey is a solid scorer for the Oklahoma City Thunder, but tonight’s matchup is undesirable for the Aussie guard. We’re much more bullish on the scoring potential of Kelly Oubre, as well as Jarrett Allen’s rebounding exploits.

Find all our best NBA props picks for March 23 below.

NBA odds as of 9:50 a.m. ET on 03/23/2023.

NBA prop picks

Best Bet: Allen over 10.5 rebounds (-114)

This line asks a bit more out of Allen than what he’s averaged this season (9.9 rebounds/game), but there are a few factors working in favour of this prop hitting the over.

For one thing, the Nets are generous to opposing centres when it comes to rebounding. Brooklyn allows 16.5 rebounds per game to rival big men, which is the second-highest rate in the NBA, per FantasyPros.

Aside from centre Nic Claxton, the Nets don’t have a ton of major rebounding threats. On a per-game basis, two of their top four rebounders are no longer on the team (Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving).

Additionally, Allen has found success on the glass against the Nets this season. The ex-Net grabbed 14 boards in their matchup on Tuesday, as well as 11 rebounds when they played on Boxing Day.

Dating back to 2021, Allen has gone over this line in five of seven matchups with the Nets. His recent form against them — and the league as a whole — is plenty encouraging, too.

Key stat: Allen has gone over 10.5 rebounds in 11 of his past 18 games (61.1%).

Quick picks

Oubre over 21.5 points (-127): The Hornets would much prefer to have LaMelo Ball in their lineup, obviously. But on an individual level, his absence has done wonders for Oubre’s production.

Since Ball’s season-ending ankle surgery on March 1, Oubre has averaged 24.1 points in nine games — clearing this line seven times.

On the season, Oubre has 22-plus points in 20 of 33 games without Ball (including 11 of the past 13). Oubre attempts 17.7 shots per game with Ball on the sidelines, versus 16.1 shots with Ball on the court.

Giddey under 15.5 points (-121): First impressions don’t have to be lasting, but if they are, we feel good about fading Giddey’s scoring potential at this number.

He’s gone under it in all three career appearances against the Clippers (dating back to 2021), which includes Tuesday’s 13-point effort.

The Clippers allow the second-fewest points to shooting guards, and Giddey has gone under this line in five of his past seven games.

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