The UCP led at the start, in the middle and at the end. Danielle Smith, soon to be sworn in again, is a real premier-designate, not just the choice of her party.
Hers is a remarkable odyssey marked by loss as Wildrose leader in 2012, floor-crossing in 2015, virtual exile from public life, comeback as a commentator, and then — still shocking to many — capturing the UCP leadership and becoming premier.
But her majority is the thinnest in Alberta history — only five seats, barely enough for workable government. And one of those 49 MLAs has already been banished to sit as an Independent. Another must be the Speaker.
Many of her past comments and positions haunted her. And yet, she won.
Smith promised to govern for all Albertans, praised NDP Leader Rachel Notley’s dedication (to some boos from the crowd), and warned again that she’s up for battles with Ottawa over phasing out natural gas for electricity.
The anti-Ottawa declaration was fierce for a celebratory speech. It’s possible that Smith, now that she’s won, will soon roll out the sovereignty act she so seldom mentioned during the campaign.
To the majority of Albertans, her controversial legacy wasn’t enough to force a turn to the NDP. In fact, a good many voters flat-out love her contrarianism.
But Rachel Notley’s NDP gained 15 seats in the province and jumped from three ridings to 14 in Calgary.
As Notley said, she will lead the largest Opposition in Alberta history, with 38 seats. (Laurence Decore’s Liberals won 32 in a smaller legislature in 1993.)
It was a shattering loss, nonetheless. In an emotional and gracious speech, Notley said she will stay on as Opposition leader.
“Now is not the time to let up,” she said. “Now is the time to step up.”
But for how long? Notley is the longest-serving MLA in the legislature. She won in 2015 and now has lost twice, in 2019 and again last night.
Smith is entitled to celebrate her victory. But the five-seat majority is shaky. Jennifer Johnson, who won Lacombe-Ponoka with 70 per cent of the vote, will sit as an Independent because of her appalling remarks about trans kids.
Johnson is highly likely to vote with the UCP, of course. But, in practice, Smith’s majority is only three seats
She has to know that the UCP is much weaker than it was in 2019, and severely challenged in the big cities.
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Edmonton is now wall-to-wall orange. Former deputy premier Kaycee Madu lost the only UCP seat in the capital.
In Calgary, two cabinet members went down — former health minister Jason Copping (Varsity) and previous mental heath and addictions minister Nicholas Milliken (Currie).
Parachutist Rajan Sawhney (trade and immigration) clung to North West by fewer than 200 votes.
Calgary-Elbow, the storied central fief of former PC premiers Ralph Klein and Alison Redford, fell to the NDP by more than 1,000 votes. Smith had left it sitting empty following the resignation of Doug Schweitzer last August.
There will almost certainly be a recount in Calgary-Acadia, where former justice minister Tyler Shandro lost by only seven votes to New Democrat Diana Batten. The final result is suddenly vitally important to both parties.
Across the two big cities, the NDP now has 34 seats, the UCP only 12. The NDP has become the strongest force in big-city politics.
This has become a structural weakness for the UCP. It’s almost as stark as the NDP’s own abject failure in rural Alberta.
Even with a strong majority government, the province is more sharply divided than ever. It’s Smith’s job now to reconcile these rural-urban opposites, two giant clusters of voters with increasingly divergent problems, opinions and even understandings of basic reality.
Virtually all the premier’s past dabbling with contrarian theories, medical treatments and health-care systems have surely been revealed by now. They were hammered endlessly by the opposition and the media.
It’s good that they were, even though many conservatives were infuriated.
The airing of Smith’s past forced her to say all that’s behind her. She promised solid governance for all Albertans, a common-sense approach and a focus on basic government.
The biggest mistake by either side in the campaign? This was surely the NDP’s promise to raise the tax on big business. It gave the UCP the crucial wedge to lure business-friendly Calgary conservatives back from NDP temptation.
The NDP would not have lost support if it had not made that promise. But it surely cost votes right where they mattered, in close Calgary ridings that might have been flipped.
Game over, for now.
Danielle Smith rolls on, somewhat hobbled but proof that there is life after political death.
Don Braid’s column appears regularly in the Herald
Twitter: @DonBraid
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